In a bizarre series of developments, US President Donald Trump sent shockwaves to India days before he met Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
After deporting 104 illegal Indian migrants with handcuffs and shackles in a military plane, Trump signed an order canceling the concession it had given to India on financing and constructing the Chabahar Port off Sistan-Baluchistan in Iran.
Will PM Modi take up this issue with Trump and extract any concession on Chabahar Port?
Will Washington choke the proposed lifeline for Central Asia?
Will the US force India to stop the construction of the port that has the potentialities to counter the Chinese influence by making its presence felt at the Pakistani port of Gwadar, being constructed about 100km away?
Why Is Chabahar Port Important?
Situated on Iran’s southeastern tip off the Gulf of Oman, the Chabahar Port is the only oceanic port in the Shiite country. It has two parts- Shahid Kalantari and Shahid Beheshti, each with five berths. India is developing Shahid Beheshti.
Being a part of the International North-South Trade Corridor (INSTC), Chabahar is an important port for international trade. The 7,200-km long network of ship, rail, and road routes for transporting goods between India, Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia and Europe, was planned to counter the influence of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
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Chabahar will also counter Gwadar Port, being constructed by China in Pakistan’s Balochistan province off the Arabian Sea under the BRI. While China wants to reach Europe through the BRI, Russia and India want to achieve this aim through the NSTC.
US Makes A U-Turn On Chabahar
When India and Iran signed the agreement for the construction of Chabahar in 2016, Washington backed it, keeping in mind Afghanistan, where a US-backed dispensation was in power.
However, after the Pentagon pulled its troops from the country and the Taliban stormed into power in Afghanistan in 2021, the US strategy changed.
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When Minister of Ports Shipping and Waterways Sarbananda Sonowal and Iranian Minister of Roads and Urban Development, Mehrdad Bazrpash, signed a 10-year deal in 2024 for the operation of Chabahar port, Washington objected.
Under the deal, New Delhi was expected to invest $120 million in the development of the Chabahar Port and extend a loan of $250 million to Tehran.
Washington responded immediately as State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel warned New Delhi that “anyone considering business deals with Iran needs to be aware of the potential risk of sanctions.”
Donald Trump Signs Memorandum To Stop Chabahar
Now, the Donald Trump Administration wants to take it forward as it has adopted a much harsher approach towards Iran.
Sending strong signals to India, Donald Trump signed a national security presidential memorandum on Tuesday. With this, the US put the earlier tough policy on Iran in place once again.
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Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been directed in the memorandum to “modify or rescind sanctions waivers, particularly those that provide Iran any degree of economic or financial relief, including those related to Iran’s Chabahar port project”.
The order signed by the US President has also directed the US permanent representative to the United Nations to “work with key allies to complete the snapback of international sanctions and restrictions on Iran.”
After Donald Trump slapped the Islamic Republic with tough economic sanctions in his first term of presidency, it forced India to stop purchasing crude oil from Tehran in 2019. Iran was the third biggest crude oil supplier to India at that time.
Will China Grab Opportunity To Checkmate India?
The problem is much more complicated than it appears. If India is stopped by the US to fund, construct and operate the Chabahar Port project, China may grab the opportunity.
Beijing, which has invested $618 million in various projects in Iran between 2018 and 2022, will be happier to pump billions of dollars into the port project, it has been eyeing for long for its geostrategic significance.
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China has already invested $62 billion in Gwador and other BRI projects in Pakistan, while India has put oly $500 million in Chabahar. If New Delhi is not allowed to invest in the port project, China may pump in as much money as Tehran requires.
Will Chabahar Come Up In Modi-Trump Talks?
With its foothold in Gwador, control over Chabahar will allow Beijing to have complete control over large parts of the Arabian Sea, giving a significant strategic depth in the Indian Ocean.
It will also dampen the INSTC and make the BRI much more significant with far-reaching consequences.
The important question is: will PM Modi take up this issue with Donald Trump and drive the point home that pulling out of Chabahar will give Beijing an opportunity to control the Arabian Sea?
Analysts think, as Donald Trump believes in transactional relationships rather than time-tested friendship, he may use Chabahar as a bargaining chip and extract concessions from India in other fields.
