Written by Paras Nath Choudhary
Bangladesh will go to the polls early next year to elect a new government. There are 350 seats up for grabs. The Awami League led by the present prime minister Sheikh Hasina is the front-runner. The other two contenders for power the Bangladesh Nationalist Party led by Khalida Zia and the Jatiya Party[Ershad] will be in distant second and third positions respectively. All other parties including the Communist Party of Bangladesh will be of no significance. The Awami League led by Sheikh Hasina is expected to romp home without much difficulty, those keeping a close eye on developments in Bangladesh say most Bangladeshis still deposit their trust in Sheikh Hasina as a leader who can deliver on her promises.
Hasina’s popularity derives from multiple achievements including providing political stability, accomplishing the much-needed economic turnaround, enabling Bangladesh to notch up a GDP counting more than a trillion dollars, Bangladesh becoming the world’s garment capital and last but not least Bangladesh accessing a considerable money order economy. These successes have shown Hasina’s policies including the policy of export-led industrialization to be a game changer. Bangladesh no longer attracts the tag ‘basket case’.
That apart, Sheikh Hasina has spent massively on infrastructure, education, housing and other basic facilities catering to the needs of the common people. This has strengthened her identification with the poor. It is widely assumed that poverty at the grassroots level has been directly assaulted for the first time during her years in power.
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Given all this Hasina seems to be outpacing her rivals in the build-up to the election. Opinion polls say Hasina’s popular approval still hovers around 70 per cent. The recent anti-govt. demonstrations and protests have not been as successful as they were expected to be. Not only at home but also abroad she is seen successful in steering Bangladesh in the right direction. Bangladesh is already recognized as an important country in the Indo-Pacific. Bangladesh pipped Pakistan to the post by surging ahead of the latter on all economic parameters including tackling the challenge of poverty that has raised its status in the world.
However, when all is said and done, India needs to be extremely vigilant about the upcoming poll in Bangladesh. Any setback to the Awami League led by Sheikh Hasina will entail far-reaching consequences for New Delhi. Its Look East Policy will run into trouble. Its purchase in Dhaka will become a thing of the past. On the contrary, Hasina’s defeat will strengthen China’s control over this South Asian nation. Our communist neighbour will spare no effort in using Bangladesh’s space to gain strategic advantages against us. On balance, Hasina’s defeat will translate into a foreign policy disaster for New Delhi. However, the most reassuring thing is that most experts predict Sheikh Hasina will return to power without fail yet again in January 2024.
